And not surprisingly. No matter how much the Azeri authorities tried to convince the whole world that Armenia wants to attack, in reality everything is different. Armenia should not attack, why !? Everything what needed to be captured, already captured.
The report of the International Crisis Group on the Karabakh conflict has paved the way for various comments in Armenia, Azerbaijan and the NKR. The report “The clouds of war are gathering in the sky of Nagorno-Karabakh” speaks of the growing threat of war, the escalation of tension, which, in the opinion of the authors, can very suddenly lead to large-scale military actions. Nevertheless, there are experts who do not agree with the analytical part of the report.
The latest report of the International Crisis Group (ICG) on the Karabakh conflict has paved the way for various comments in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. The report titled “The clouds of war are gathering in the sky of Nagorno-Karabakh” speaks of a sharp increase in the threat of war, an escalation of tension, which, according to the authors of the report, can very suddenly lead to large-scale military actions.
Nevertheless, there are experts who disagree with the analytical part of the report and believe that in the conflict zone the situation of “not war, not peace” can remain for a long time, until the balance of power is broken.
Expert of the International Crisis Group, co-author of the report Olesya Vardanyan believes that during the drafting of the report, a rather voluminous work was accomplished. Hundreds of interviews have been conducted in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
According to the expert, speaking about the likelihood of war, the report attempted to focus international attention on the problem.
On June 7, at the Media Center, debates were held with the participation of Stepan Safaryan, Director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan and Director of the Armenian Institute for International Affairs and Security Affairs Olesya Vardanyan on the topic “Why does the International Crisis Group predict a threat of war in the Karabakh conflict zone?”
Alexander Iskandaryan has another opinion , he believes that the ICG report should be viewed in two dimensions – describing and analyzing. “The first, as for the describing part, the report is compiled fairly well and conscientiously. A database of facts has been collected and well presented, “- he notes.
On the other hand, however, in his opinion, the report is limping analytically. “Signals about the threat of war have always been in the ICG reports. I do not remember the case that this was not. Of course, there is a threat of war, but the report does not say how and what mechanisms it can begin. It is said that if there is a threat, then there can be a war, but how, after which, it is not said, ” – Iskandaryan notes, adding that on the contrary, in Karabakh after the April events the probability of resuming a large-scale war is minimal.
According to him, the April clashes demonstrated the balance of forces in the conflict zone. “After that, the alignment of forces changed in favor of Armenia, and I can not imagine large-scale military operations,” – he said.
The participant of the discussion Stepan Safaryan turned to the forecasts contained in the report about the possibility of involving Turkey and Russia in a possible war in the zone of the Karabakh conflict.
First, he sent a question to the co-author of the report on whether these forecasts are based on specific information received from Turkey and Russia, or are they just conclusions from the report? Having received an answer that the forecasts are based on information received from the representatives of Russia and Turkey, Safaryan nevertheless stated that Ankara will not interfere in the Karabakh conflict only for the sake of Baku, whatever contracts exist between them.
Safaryan recalled that during the April events the Azerbaijani side did not produce a single shot at the border with Armenia. “This shows that Azerbaijan understands the consequences of aggression against Armenia. Baku is now concentrating on local escalation, ” – he said, adding that Karabakh is not the Middle East and does not have the same significance for Turkey as Syria.
“Of course, Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan, but I do not think that for Baku it will take such a step. Especially, given that its relations with Russia are normalized. I do not think that Ankara will endanger its strategic interests and get involved in the conflict, ” – the expert concluded.
